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Warm Spell

He was extremely impressive on his debut at Fontwell last month, travelling strongly and powering clear on the run-in without breaking sweat. On that evidence, he could well be above average, in which case he should be capable of giving away the weight. The Championship race of the day was remarkably won by another mare making it 2-0 to the girls so far. She really relished the jumping test, and travelled so well behind the leading bunch throughout. Her jumping was immaculate and she managed to avoid all of the hustle and bustle that was happening after the last to catch Chacun pour soi up the home straight. Following this Monkfish stepped up and won the Brown Advisory Chase without needing to be at his best to do so.

Saturday 27th July’s Racecards for UK & Ireland

• But the winning post is not on the home bend and there were no signs of panic from de Boinville, as good a man for the big occasion as there is riding in Britain at the moment.
• Decent jumping ground at both with course alterations affecting the official distances.
• Thirdly, cheekpieces have been more about futility than utility outside of handicap chases.
• Third of the four runners during the early stages, Rebel’s Romance challenged entering the final quarter mile and lengthened up the hill to beat stablemate Kemari by a convincing three and three-quarter lengths.

That race tempo looks a reasonable fit against today’s likely setup and, what’s more, the horse in question, Tropez Power, won it — over today’s course and distance and in today’s class. He’s a dual winner from four starts on all-weather and, in between those wins, he again showed good acceleration to close from 3 3/4 lengths behind to a length behind at the line in another similarly run race. No, the job here is to look at how the percentages within a going column change based on the number of previous wins on that going. This rises to a bit more than 12% for those with a single prior win on good ground and hovers around the same figure for runners who have twice won previously on good; it then drops a notable bit for triple good scorers. This doesn’t just work on all-weather or on turning tracks, by the way. Both Newmarket courses, for example, offer great advantage to front-runners over most trips up to about nine furlongs.

Davy Russell stood down for Fred Winter

It’s worth recalling that she was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles at Aintree last April, and it’s typical of Lucinda Russell’s horses to only show their very best form in the spring. O’Connor rides Corbett’s Cross, who was a big talking horse before running out here last year, and he was brought down in his prep race for this when the rider was given his traditional ‘feeler’ at Fairyhouse. He has a chance, for sure, but is of no great interest at around 2/1 given his imperfect preparation.

Breeders’ Cup 2024 at Del Mar: a look at Aidan O’Brien’s team on Saturday night

Willie has more than just State Man; he also saddles last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner, Vauban, and he’s an interesting contender. While Constitution Hill and State Man are likely to be on or close to the pace, Vauban has been ridden a lot more patiently and, as a result, has finished his races off well in respectable defeats to State Man. If State Man tries to force things against the favourite — and it’s unlikely the Closutton team will be riding for a place — then Vauban may be the one to hoover up any crumbs. The Goffer won a Grade A handicap chase at Leopardstown last time off a mark of 138. He’s got 149 here, as a result of both that win and the recalibration of Irish marks to British ones; while that seems a hefty enough elevation to overcome, the step back up to an extended three miles could be in his favour.

Ayr Gold Cup Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends

He’s highly respected but not as much as Elliott’s dominance — as well as six from seven winners since 2017, he’s also saddled four of the second placed horses, a quite phenomenal record. Choosing between his entries is not easy and Delta Work might well be the one. But I’ve been drawn to Coko Beach, still relatively young at nine and in the form of his life.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

• Despite the drift from an opening 13/8 – getting around 2/1 for an even money chance is clearly value.
• This son of Churchill ran his best race to date when beaten a length over C&D last month and given that form has been well advertised since I think he can go one better here.
• Indeed, he was second to Delta Work in this race a year ago and was down the field in the two handicap chases over the track/trip late last year.
• The Evens to 9/4 bracket has proved the most profitable in ROI terms and, taking shorter priced runners as a whole, the market has been a pretty good guide.
• 20 of the 24 winners this century have been aged 7-9yo but there’s been an 11yo winner in 2021, a couple of 10yo winners (2007 & 2010) plus a French-bred 6yo in 2018.

But as a professional you do not have bets just for the sake of it. 2016 Cheltenham Champion bumper winner Ballyandy could well improve, but is very short in the market on hurdles form achieved. Essentially a 2m 6f horse who would have to make this his first ever win over 3m. At the 8/1 on offer worth considering a win only value bet. Beyond Conceit impressed when returning from a long absence on hurdles debut.

Durbanville Tips

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• The main event on Day One is the Champion Hurdle, a two mile Grade 1 where the reigning champion, Honeysuckle, will bid to defend her crown.
• With form horses Coo Star Sivola and Global Stage having disappointed on their latest starts – a difficult race to assess.
• 13 of the last 14 winners had finished top 4 in all completed Chases.
• The horse is banks king Enda Bolger’s latest McManus project, and was revitalised by a first spin over ditches, wedges and all in the PP Hogan Memorial Chase — a key prep for this — last time.
• I don’t know how we messed it up, but that’s behind us now.

Get Your Tips Out’s comprehensive coverage extends to global races, including Dubai, enabling punters to access insights on a broad spectrum of events and enhancing their betting strategies with diverse market knowledge. By considering such expert tips and a variety of opinions, punters can navigate through the complexities of horse racing and increase their chances of winning. A 3lb penalty for that success leaves Eilean Dubh 2lb well in according to the British Horseracing Authority handicapper’s maths, and a draw in stall six is another aid to his chance. In one of the trickiest betting races of the week, Noble Dynasty has to make the short-list, along with Jimi Hendrix, Sinjaari and Lawful Command. MAKE MY DAY is the choice to improve on his record of a win and a second from two visits to Goodwood. Successful in spells with John Gosden and Ralph Beckett, the son of Galileo was off the track for 511 days before making the frame twice from three attempts over hurdles.

Presenting Percy goes off as favourite in the 2.10

Here there appears to be quite strong correlation between Elliott’s four-month form and his Festival form. When looking at a combination of events — say, all trainer’s runners over a period of time — we can derive an overall PRB figure and use that for comparative purposes. Asterion Forlonge — not on his feet for longe [harsh] — is a really talented horse who is probably just a bit soft.

With nine fences to go

He’s no longer an each way price so I hope he’ll go very close to winning. Last time out, Edwardstone looked a new man under revised tactics. Sent forward in the four-runner heavy ground Grade 2 Game Spirit he barreled clear by 40 lengths from Funabule Sivola.

This season, battle lines are drawn between Britain and Ireland and, as with the Champion Hurdle two races later, team captains are Messrs Henderson and Mullins. Willie also has Zarak The Brave, who is at least vaguely credible for the frame at a price. His form this season is 1P1, wins in the Galway Hurdle (off 145 in a field of 19 on goodish ground) and a Naas Grade 3 in a small field on soft sandwiching a flunk when he was found to have been post-race clinically abnormal. I’m not entirely sure what that means but perhaps it was a fibrillating heart; conjecture aside, if he can bring his A game he is one of the few within a stone of State Man on ratings. Although they’ve been getting closer in recent times (2nd and 4th last year), the Irish don’t have a great overall record in the Ultima (0/38 since 2007) and you have to go back to 2006 and Tony Martin’s Dun Doire to find their last winner.

Previous experience of this tricky cross country course is always invaluable and there is no shortage of proven performers in this tight field. Perhaps the most progressive is BLESS THE WINGS and he is a tentative choice. Cause of Causes, Cantlow and Josies Orders all have similar sorts of claims. The Last Samuri, a smart horse at Aintree, is interesting. He passed him in the air at the last and then sprinted up the hill as he has done here now three years in succession, in the Supreme, then the Arkle and now the Champion Chase, a deja-deja-vu.

Put The Kettle On — Mares’ Chase — 5/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG) or 11/2 PP (NRNB)

One group of runners to avoid in Grade 1 races seems to be those that ran relatively modestly or poorly last time out. Horses that finished 5th or worse on their prep run have accounted for just eight winners from 282 runners (SR 2.8%) for a hefty BSP loss of £129.01 (ROI -45.8%). Meanwhile, last day winners have secured 141 wins from 1200 runners (SR 11.8%). They, too, made a loss but nowhere near as severe, at -£50.53 (ROI -4.2%). The last decade has seen a notable uptick in performance which mirrors the type of pattern we saw earlier in terms of the increasing number of Irish runners that have started clear favourite. In that favourite data, the years 2008 to 2012 saw the smallest market leader numbers by some margin.

Paddy Power is the winner in terms of live streaming, with Betfair a close second, for both the range and quality of their live streams. Our AI articles are NOT written by a real person and are provided for entertainment only. They may contain content which is inaccurate but we are hoping our AI bot, Rose, will become better over time. The AI category is the ONLY section of JuiceStorm.com that has zero human input. BetTrader from RacingTraders.co.uk was the 1st application for Betfair & introduced the ladder UI.

• Trainer Mick Appleby was rightly pleased with the performance of Big Evs in defeat and will now look to campaign his stable star on more speed favouring tracks, like Del Mar in November.
• You already know that the better the form figures the better the chance and the shorter the likely odds.
• The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 5 career wins in Flat (AW) races, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-71.
• The bias is less extreme but the linearity remains, with front-runners still well favoured over prominent racers, and the later running styles about even behind those further forward.
• Saint Sam and Magic Daze are the most likely leaders, but Blue Lord and Riviere d’Etel have led or pressed the pace in at least two of their most recent four starts as well.
• Having ticked the race conditions boxes, and with a pace setup almost certain to play to his A game, he looks a ‘banker’ (relatively speaking).
• A Champion Chase that has been El Fabiolo’s to lose for much of the season.

Horse Racing Tips: A 7/1 NAP tops our best Kempton bets tonight

Horse racing has long been one of the most popular sports in the UK, drawing audiences in the millions for some race events. Again, Betfair and Paddy Power have the largest availability of live streaming events, closely followed by SkyBet. At the time of writing, Paddy Power had an impressive 15 live streaming races – nearly double the 8 to be found on 888sport. Betfair allows you to stream their selection of live races from a minimum £0.50 bet. There, you will be able to see a list of all the runners and various stats about them such as their weights, ages, and jockeys.

• MT — ‘Waited with’ run style can be a positive in the Ultima where plenty of jockeys go off too quickly.
• Despite previous trends favouring shorter-priced horses, this year’s contest appears to be wide open.
• This special spot was also once part of the stables to a once neighbouring 18th-century coaching inn, with evidence of this time still seen in the cottage’s ancient, exposed beams.
• Everyone at Reach is committed to promoting safer gambling.
• And yet it’s Henry de Bromhead who saddles the ante post favourite, Minella Indo.
• Hovering over  the coloured blobs in the ‘Race Speed vs Par’ column (title unhelpfully obscured in the image above), shows the sectional percentages for our OMC (Opening / Mid-race  / Closing) format.

We do also display win and place percentages but, in truth, these are the equivalent of answering the question, «What time is it?», with «Tuesday afternoon». Next in the lists, at 10/1, is Al Boum Photo, winner of the 2019 and 2020 Gold Cups and third last year. That seemed to signal a changing of the guard, an impression that recently turning ten has done nothing to dispel. The substance of his Punchestown second to Clan Des Obeaux and his annual trot around Tramore on New Year’s Day has corroborated the perception of this brilliant fellow yielding just a touch to the passage of time. For all that iffing and butting, A Plus Tard is the right favourite and almost certain to offer a run for the pennies.

That fast finishing effort was six races ago, on a different track and under what is presumed to be a different tempo to today’s race. The bias is less extreme but the linearity remains, with front-runners still well favoured over prominent racers, and the later running styles about even behind those further forward. On firm ground, we see a similar leap from maiden on that terrain to those with one or two wins.

That form reads pretty well for all that it’s probably a dollop below the pick of the Irish team. Still, he has very clear potential and might come out as the top home team runner (if you like sound bites, his trainer has apparently suggested Handstands is better than Willoughby Court, who won this race in 2017). When you’re placing your bets, you’ll come across jargon specific to horse racing and betting. While you’ll mostly find it straightforward to pick your winners and place your bets across our recommended bookies, it’s nevertheless important you understand what the most common terms mean and how they might affect your bets. In-play betting is arguably a little less effective in horse racing compared to say, football or tennis. Horse races are usually fast moving by their nature, blink-and-you-miss-it type events.

He is not a guaranteed runner, hence the insurance caveat of NRNB, but this race is looking less and less clear cut by the day. Easysland was expected to bolt up before flopping at the November meeting; he was then expected to race in France as a preparation but skipped that, too, so comes in off that solitary, below par, effort. He could easily bounce back but is not the ‘gimme’ he looked going into the November meeting.

The 39 in the last decade which didn’t were all unplaced bar one. Indeed, horses rated 140 or below, including those without a rating, are a combined seven from 308 for a loss at SP of 185 points. None of the 238 horses sent off at 25/1 or bigger managed to win an open Grade 1 at the last ten CheltFests. Moreover, only three priced bigger than 14/1 scored, from 335 to face the starter, with this group losing 274 points at SP. Meanwhile, those priced at 14/1 or shorter won 50 races from 300 starters, and lost just two points at SP. Chacun was imperious at Christmas, value for plenty more than the official six and a half lengths.

This is a ‘hands and heels’ handicap hurdle for amateurs and conditionals – whips not to be used. Not the sort of race I would Bolts Up Daily get too seriously involved with. Only Sir Note and Lemon’s Gent come into this race in form and both look beatable.

We’ve got to balance the style and potential of Dysart Dynamo and Constitution Hill against the substance of Jonbon, Kilcruit and Mighty Potter. Given the prices, where style is in the realms of win only wagering, and substance comes with each way potential, I’ll let the pin up boys beat me if they can. The more I look at the Supreme, the more I feel like Mighty Potter should get a lovely lead into the business end and will get the end-to-end gallop that suits him best. He’s the biggest price of the fancied quintet and that seems a little unfair.

If the ground dries out, it might be that connections of Honeysuckle decide to run over this two-and-a-half mile trip rather than the extended two of the Champion Hurdle. The hallmark of those runs, and indeed her run style generally, is being held together off the pace before cruising through to prevail comfortably. In so doing it is hard to peg the level of her form exactly, always leaving the impression there is more in the tank. Lightly raced, as is often the modus operandi with Willie Mullins’ better mares, Concertista has run just twice this term. She beat the same mare, Minella Melody, by nearly two lengths in a Grade 2 in November and then by more than six lengths in a Grade 3 at the turn of the year.

His form is in another postcode to his rivals in a market still trying to get him beaten with the wonderful but past his best Altior and a sizeable group of second division chasers. A horse like Fakir D’Oudairies, who is 20/1 NRNB in a place because he’s more likely to fly Ryanair, might be a feasible hail mary in a race loaded with if’s and but’s. Three runs, three wins, in Grade 2 and Grade 1 (twice) company, beating the right horses with nonchalance. He travels like a dream, jumps very well and, if he faces the starter at Cheltenham, will have managed more runs this season than in the previous two combined. A place strike rate of 36% is more compelling, and a majority of runners have performed at least close to market expectation. Notably, the big guns — Chantry House, Champ — have run very well.